Toward the end of last year, Turkey and Libya signed an accord with Libya’s internationally-recognized government that would create an exclusive economic zone between the southern shore of Turkey in the Mediterranean to the northeastern coast of Libya. George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Geopolitics African Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. In late 2019, anti-Semitic attacks and acts of vandalism defacing Jewish cemeteries increased, especially in the New York/New Jersey metro area. Preparedness and comprehensive, systematic risk analysis will be imperative to minimizing losses and maximizing opportunities in 2020. The Battle for Planet Earth is reaching a climax as opposing forces try to use the “coronavirus pandemic” to achieve their agendas. Another area where geopolitics and energy security are converging rapidly is in the eastern Mediterranean. Your comment will be posted pending moderator approval. Within the next decade, China will inevitably eclipse the United States and take over the mantle as the world’s economic engine. Later in December, in Monsey, New York, an individual with a demonstrated affinity for the Black Israelite movement, carried out a stabbing attack that injured five at a rabbi’s home during Hanukah. Executive Seminar 1 The Essentials of Geopolitical Analysis . The move is widely believed to be an attempt to block a conglomeration of states—Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt—in their quest to streamline gas from the eastern Mediterranean. Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like? Public Reports; COVID-19 MAP; log in sign up. In contrast, the U.S. federal government has yet to dedicate the resources necessary to meet the domestic terrorism challenge. Technologically, the U.S. remains a world leader, but China is quickly closing the gap, particularly in the area of AI and other emerging technologies. Moving into 2020, U.S. power has waned considerably. HSE University is one of the top research universities in Russia. Entering 2020, there are a host of geopolitical trends that will significantly impact global security throughout the coming year and beyond. Over the past few years, terrorism in the United States has been chiefly perpetrated by individuals associated with an anti-Semitic and white supremacist worldview. The most immediate challenge is how the conflict between the United States and Iran unfolds, which is a situation that is likely to drag on for months, if not longer. May 18, 2020 al The Geopolitics of the 2020 Election: Part I (NB: Due to the Memorial Day holiday, the next report will be published on June 1.) A Certificate in Geopolitical Analysis can be obtained upon completion of the course. Chinese soldiers now prevent Indian patrols in the area *** There are two key regions in Asia – the South China sea and the Himalayas – that will det Many of these challenges overlap and interact with each other and will be impacted by developments in emerging technologies, demographic shifts, and socio-cultural factors. He has served as a commissioner on the Independent Commission to Review the FBI’s Post-9/11 Response to Terrorism and Radicalization, a Scholar-in-Residence for Counterterrorism at the CIA, and an adviser on ... Get a daily rundown of the top security stories delivered to your inbox Monday through Friday with exclusive briefs and columns on what matters most to you and your organization. InsiderRelease January 31, 2021 3 min read. 2020 will likely bear witness to Washington’s continued retreat from multilateralism on a gradual but steady glide path toward moderate isolationism. Bruce Hoffman is a professor at Georgetown University and the Shelby Cullom and Kathryn W. Davis Visiting Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security at the Council on Foreign Relations. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation. The U.S. decision to abandon the Kurds, who were instrumental in the fight against ISIS, sent a message to potential future allies that the United States is unreliable. Your email address will not be published. African Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. No ad hominem attacks will be posted. Africa is an immense continent, characterized by deep differences and internal complexity. A range of factors have contributed to these protests, including corruption and inept governance; changing demographics and rapid population growth; incompetent natural resource management; and devastating poverty, marginalization, and inequality. Middle East Gamechanger? An early December shooting targeting Jews at a kosher grocery store in Jersey City by individuals linked to the Black Israelite movement, an anti-Semitic hate group, resulted in five deaths. Globally engaged individuals and organizations join Stratfor Worldview for objective geopolitical intelligence and analysis that reveals the underlying significance and future implications of emerging world events. The second space race will begin. Biotech will become a critical component of national power. Assessing the geopolitics and motives behind emergence of the Quad’s Leadership Summit. Nord Stream 2 is a $10.5 billion project that will deliver Russian natural gas to Europe through a pipeline being built in the Baltic Sea. *** UPDATES *** November 1 2020: A summer of fighting saw India lose control over about 300 square kilometers (115 square miles) of land along the disputed mountainous terrain, according to Indian officials familiar with the situation. As globalization proceeds unabated, authoritarian countries are seeking to harden their borders, even as social media transcends all physical boundaries and influences citizens and populations in different ways. Laws and regulations governing the potential use of deepfakes and fake political advertisements to curry favor with American citizens are virtually non-existent. Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Next 100 Years. … All of the recent frictions underpinning the US-Philippine alliance are on display in recent attempts to renegotiate the Visiting Forces Agreement. Ancient Underground Tunnels 2020 Documentary Subterranean Worlds Span The Entire Earth. Geopoliticalmonitor.com is a registered trade name of Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp. © 2021 Geopoliticalmonitor Intelligence Corp., All Rights Reserved | ISSN 1927-3045. you need to be logged in to access this page. As citizens struggle to transform political systems and demand accountability under the rule of law, many will face authoritarian governments using a combination of brute force and electronic surveillance to maintain a grip on power. Required fields are marked *. Some of the most pressing issues, including climate change, can only be tackled throughout cooperation and multi-stakeholder buy-in. InsiderRelease February 2, 2021 4 min read. Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar. Beautiful places and people deriving by a wide range of different ethnic groups and tribes. Last year alone, the world witnessed protest movements in Algeria, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, France, Hong Kong, India, Iraq, Lebanon, Russia, Sudan, and elsewhere. We then use text analysis to calculate the frequency of their appearance in the Refinitiv Broker Report and Dow Jones Global Newswire databases as well as on Twitter. It is difficult to disaggregate these events, which are shaping their respective countries and challenging existing systems of governance. Dates: will be communicated. Insider Release wanted to analyze the geopolitical situation in … Following the end of the Cold War, the United States became the world’s dominant power for the better part of three decades. In 2020, the U.S. Presidential election will be mired in innuendo and false narratives that will make it difficult for the American electorate to divine fact from fiction. The liberation forces are using the lockdown as an opportunity to arrest senior Khazarian Mafiosi, while the Satanists are hoping to vaccinate and microchip the general public back into submission, multiple sources agree. Europe’s populist parties haven’t thrived amid COVID-19 – but their ideas have. This seminar introduces the main components and methodology of geopolitical analysis and integrates a case study assessment and exercise. September 16, 2020. On an international level, there are explicit global security threats posed by deepfakes, including conflict that could spill over from the virtual to the physical world. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global affairs. Asian conflicts are booming. Next in our series on strategic commodities we examine tantalum, a conflict mineral with complex geopolitical ramifications for East Africa and beyond. We temporarily stopped using Twitter as an input as of July 3, 2020. Learn more about The Cipher Brief's Network here. GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS OF AFGHANISTAN (APRIL 2011) 1. In our geopolitical outlook for 2020,1 our most important issue was the 2020 elections. Many of the protests, particularly those that swept throughout the Middle East, featured external intervention by states working through proxies to affect the outcome of the demonstrations. Each of these trends presents complex problems for the global community and requires collaboration between states and non-state actors, the public and private sectors, corporations, and civil society organizations. Five geopolitical trends to watch closely in the coming year are the continued proliferation of disinformation; rising anti-Semitism and the globalization of anti-Semitism and white supremacy extremism; an international system shifting from unipolar to multipolar; the momentum of worldwide protest movements; and the importance of energy as a significant determinant of states’ foreign and security policies. CSIS’s Risk and Foresight Group created four plausible, differentiated scenarios to explore the changing geopolitical landscape of 2025-2030, including the potential lasting first- and second-order effects of Covid-19. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.’” Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst, Ryan Bohl, highlights three key geopolitical trends for the coming year. Data will become the new oil. Peru’s presidency is up for grabs in what projects to be one of the most competitive elections in recent memory. Though short on details, the recent China-Iran deal could one day be looked back on as a seminal moment in the geopolitics of the Middle East. INTRODUCTION For many centuries, Afghanistan has been a natural corridor for conquerors and traders that moved troops or goods from West to East, between Middle East and India, and the other way around. Both Russia and China welcome recent events and would be content to see the United States forced to expend precious time and finite resources dealing with the fallout with Iran. Entering 2020, there are a host of geopolitical trends that will significantly impact global security throughout the coming year and beyond. 2020 is likely to continue a series of historical changes that drive events across different regions of the world. geopolitical factors were associated with implementation. Both laws, however, have significant flaws. SIGN UP FOR A CIPHER BRIEF MEMBERSHIP PLAN TO ACCESS EXCLUSIVE CONTENT. Eschatology-based geopolitical analysis is a very old and influential genre in the United States. racially and ethnically motivated extremism (REME). Washington has long worried that the project will make Europe generally and Germany more specifically vulnerable to and overly dependent on Russia. At the end of a year in which COVID-19 dominated the headlines, Nigel Gould-Davies, Editor of Strategic Survey 2020, reflects on the geopolitical lessons that should not be ignored in the year of pandemic. The most serious threat may be the convergence of ‘deepfake’ technology and analytical tools that mine personal data to identify swing-voters most susceptible to altered videos designed to influence their beliefs. GEOPOLITICS: Eternal Brexit - Analysis By George Friedman posted on September 10, 2020 via GEOPoliticalMatters.com In 2016, the British government called for a referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union. Entering 2020, there are a host of geopolitical trends that will significantly impact global security throughout the coming year and beyond. Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Many of these challenges overlap with each other and will be impacted by developments in emerging technologies, demographic shifts, and socio-cultural factors. Delivering Daily Geopolitical News, Intelligence and Risk-Analysis focusing on Political, Regime, Manufacturing, Macroeconomic, Energy, Climate, technology, Cybercrime, Military and Terrorism matters ...GEOPoliticalMatters.com Asian Conflicts 2020/2021 – Geopolitical Analysis. Palma is re-taken by security forces in Mozambique, Peruvians head to the polls, and Russian troops amass near the Ukrainian border. Yet, Twitter has decided only to potentially flag, but not remove, political deepfakes. Gauging the China-Iran Deal, Great Power Competition Comes to the Middle East: Iraq and the China-Iran Agreement, Impeachment, Apathy, and COVID-19 Loom over Peru Polls, US-Philippine Alliance: Duterte Demands US ‘Pay’ to Salvage Troop Deal, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tantalum Supply & Demand, ISIS-Linked Insurgency Opens a Vacuum in Northeast Mozambique, COVID-19: A ‘Hot Potato’ for Nationalist-Populist Parties in Europe, COVID-19: New Waves Emerge in Europe and North America, Backgrounder: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Rise of a “Drone Superpower?” Turkish Drones Upending Russia’s Near Abroad, Turning Inward: GCC Sovereign Wealth Funds Reinvent Themselves in the COVID Era, EU-China Investment Agreement Casts Europe as a Great Power, Strategic Commodities 2.0: Global Tin Supply & Demand.